Today we're going to chat about two ideas that spend a lot of time in my brain, at least in recent weeks. They are the Overton window and the Stockdale paradox.

We'll start with the Overton window. This is the range of subjects that are broadly politically and socially acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time. For example, there was a time where smoking in public was widely accepted as a perfectly fine thing to do. You could even smoke on planes. I remember when restaurants were divided into smoking and nonsmoking sections, usually by a comically thin barrier that didn't actually do much.

Now, laws have been passed to ban smoking in a variety of areas within the U.S. If someone lit up in a restaurant or movie theater, it would not just be illegal, but scorned by most patrons. The Overton window has shifted.

In recent years in the U.S., the Overton window has shifted on a lot of things. While racism, misogyny, xenophobia, ageism, and ableism never went away, there was a period of time where it was not something you'd say in polite society. But we've seen a rapid shift that's normalized behavior and outspoken beliefs that would have been unthinkable a few decades ago.

Yale has been running a survey since 2008 regarding people's perceptions of climate change, ranging from "alarmed" on one end of the spectrum to "dismissive" on the other. The Six Americas study, as it's known, found that in the span between 2013 and 2023, the number of "concerned" or "alarmed" respondents jumped from 39% to 57% — more than half of the population. In theory, this means that it would be easier for us to talk about climate topics. After all, there's a good chance that the person you're speaking with is either worried (57% as noted before) or uncertain about the cause and effect (an additional 21%).

And yet... somehow, in spite of the support being on the side of the environment, the Overton window hasn't really shifted. Will the new "drill, baby, drill" mentality result in backsliding into disengagement, doubt, or dismissiveness? Or will it rally people to stand up and take action?

And this brings us to Stockdale. Admiral Jim Stockdale was held as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. He observed that the optimists didn't survive. It seems counterintuitive, but every time they faced another level of disappointment, they were crushed by it.

Stockdale noticed that the ones who endured were the ones who looked reality squarely in the eye, without candy-coating the situation. "You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."​

So this is where we are right now. We're watching the Overton window slipping into some perilous territory just at the time when we need to be gaining ground. We need to confront that change with our eyes wide open and a realistic understanding of what we're facing.

This isn't easy stuff, but I hope that we can face it together and show people that positive change is possible.

I like to make a list of things that I read each week and then share highlights here. Things are moving so quickly that by the time I get back to reviewing them for this newsletter, half are outdated. It's a hell of a roller coaster ride, kids.

​Nature is thriving in rewilded golf courses. While this article talks most specifically about letting the land return to a more natural state for wildlife habitats, I've also spoken with people who are interested in converting shuttered courses into community gardens that can be used to supplement fresh food supplies in food deserts.

​Lithium-ion batteries burn hot, fast, and have a nasty habit of reigniting. Even after a fire looks like it's been put out, the cells can still hold a charge. That energy can spark new blazes long after the fire department has headed home. These batteries play a huge role in the renewable energy and EV transition, so fire prevention is a critical area of research.

​Farmers have sued the USDA for deleting important climate data from its website. Farmers and ranchers no longer have access to critical information and decision-making tools as they face an unstable future.

Venice is tackling its plastic problem by mapping the presence of underwater plastics and using a sophisticated robot that can remove debris without disturbing marine life. (Heads up: this web page comes with an autoplay video, so adjust your volume accordingly.)

A couple of weeks ago I talked about benevolent compliance: achieving progress within the narrow boundaries set forth by management. Behold: MAGA-friendly solar. This isn't farfetched. Four years ago, one of my neighbors told me that "solar used to be for liberal idiots, but now I see it as cheap energy that sets me free from those [OPEC nations]." As I've said before, I'm cynical enough that I don't require altruism alongside my energy. I don't really care if the conversion to renewable energy is a tax write-off or an economic benefit or a giant f-you to the Middle East. What I do care is that it shifts our reliance away from fossil fuels, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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Alisa Bonsignore

Founder, Strategist, and Author